Early voting numbers show promise for Trump and trouble for Hillary

Donald Trump has repeatedly said that he does not trust the polls and early voting numbers could be proving him right.

The results below are not tallied ballots. Votes aren’t counted until election day, but the early/absentee ballot requests and returns indicate which way a state is leaning based on which party’s voters are more enthusiastic about voting.

Swing state early ballot request and return numbers are favoring the Republican candidate. Republicans are requesting far more ballots in 2016 than they did in 2012 and Democrats are requesting far fewer  which may prove that using the 2012 exit polling data for the base demographic in polls is what is skewing the results heavily, and incorrectly, leftward.

The FBI reopening a criminal probe into Hillary Clinton could push voters to either not bother to vote or vote for left-leaning libertarian candidate Gary Johnson – neither move is good for Democrats’ desire to keep the White House and retake the Senate.

Ohio Early Voting Numbers – Leaning GOP

Ohio early voting numbers are showing a significant drop in Democratic voter early voting. Across all of Ohio, there were at least 4% fewer requests for mail-in ballots than during the 2012 election. Deep blue counties saw as much as a 17% drop according to Cleveland.com. Ohio was already leaning republican in this year’s race, but with the FBI reopening its investigation yesterday into Hillary’s illegal handling of classified information, early votes for Clinton might be all she gets.

Republican ballot requests in some Ohio counties are 11% higher than the 2012 race indicating strong Trump support in a key swing state.

Arizona Early Voting Numbers – Leaning GOP

Registered Republicans are leading in returned ballots by about 11,500 — a 1.7 percentage-point-edge over Democrats out of 682,000 votes cast so far. Hillary’s trouble with the FBI will likely energize GOP voters further.

Colorado Early Voting Numbers – Leaning DNC

The weed vote has come out for Clinton. Fearing that Trump’s “Law and Order” pledge might snuff out their doobies, Colorado’s voters have returned 24,000 more Democrat-affiliated ballots than Republicans. We don’t know if they’re marked for Hillary or Johnson just yet, so while it isn’t great news for Trump, it may not be terrible news either.

Florida Early Voting Numbers – Leaning GOP

Republicans hold a slim 6,000 return advantage in the Sunshine state and with a criminal investigation ongoing into Hillary, that lead is expected to grow as we head into election day.

Nevada Early Voting Numbers – Toss-Up

Absentee ballots had shown strongly for Republicans, but in-person early voting is leaning towards Democrats. Nevada could stay close all the way up to November 8th.

North Carolina Early Voting Numbers – Leaning GOP

Early voting returns for Democrats are significantly behind the 2012 pace and Republicans won the Tarheel state in that election.

Electoral College Map 10-29-16

With the full impact of the FBI investigation not yet weighed in, here is what early voting numbers from this week indicate for the 2016 Presidential Election: