‘Kavanaugh Effect’ is real and it is affecting House races

The mainstream media has repeatedly said that while the treatment of Justice Brett Kavanaugh during his confirmation hearings is moving many more Senate races in-favor of Republicans, the same cannot be said for the U.S. House – oh contraire mon ami.

Prior to the Democrat-led character assassination of Kavanaugh, Democrats had an impressive, and growing, lead in the midterm U.S. House races. But on October 3rd, just as the rhetoric heightened and shrieking mobs descended on Washington, D.C., the tide turned.

From October 3rd to October 17th, the status of 28 House races changed. 10 of the races that changed status went in favor of Democrats while 18 moved in favor of Republicans. While Democrats lost just 5 seats in the forecast, the majority of toss-ups that turned, went to Republicans. With 30 seats left as toss-ups, this trend could turn the tide in November.

Two other factors that may affect House races are President Trump’s MAGA rallies and the 4,000-member army of Central American nationals advancing on the U.S. border.

The president’s MAGA rallies always pull in massive crowds that overfill the capacity of the arenas in which they are held. This level of enthusiasm is likely to carry over to the voting booth. Early voting has already started in many states and these rallies are intended to excite his base and get them to the ballot box.

Border security is a central issue for the president and his supporters. The massive group of migrants headed north through Central America presents an optic unfavorable to Democrats and gives the president another chance to show his strong stance on the issue. Thursday, the president pressed Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico to handle halt the mob of migrants, or he may send the military to the border and close it.

If the migrant army continues it’s advance on the U.S. border, Democrats may see further degradation of their position ahead of 2018 midterm elections.