Super Tuesday Leans Bernie’s Way – But No Matter the Outcome, Dems are Screwed

I’ve spent the day on the phone, reading cross-tabs from the latest polls, and evaluating data from the most recent contests. Nothing, absolutely nothing, indicates anything but a great night for the aged Bolshevik – Bernie Sanders.

With all the pull outs and endorsements over the last 48 hours, voter sentiment has helped both Crazy Bernie and Uncle Joe in most states, and not enough, except in Texas, to make it a contest for Warren or Bloomberg.

So what does this mean for the Democrats? Nothing good. If Bernie wins, the moderate Dems will turn Trump or stay home. If Biden wins, the Bernie voters will just stay home.

In California (416 delegates), Sanders leads by 7 in a poll that ended Monday. Biden took a 2 point lead (within the margin of error) in a Texas (228 delegates) poll that ended yesterday. North Carolina (110 delegates) is all Biden as it has been for while.

Virginia (99 delegates) has also always been a Biden state, but Minnesota (75 delegates) flipped from Klobuchar to Sanders in recent polling.

Michigan (125 delegates) looks to go to Sanders while Florida (219 delegates) will likely be Biden’s to take. Georgia (105 delegates) was never in question and should go to the former Vice President.

The problem with the polling data, even the ones that ended yesterday, is that it started gathering data on the 28th – before South Carolina. Also, those polls cannot indicate the preferences of those who voted early – before South Carolina.

So how does that map out delegate-wise?

It’s not an easy call, but between everything I see in polling data, how my contacts tell me they see the SC result weighing and some interesting information from cross-tabs – here’s my guess on the results of Super Tuesday for the larger delegate states:

[table id=24 /]

Biden edges Sanders in the larger delegate states. Likely due to Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropping out. Sanders gains some ground in the smaller states, but ultimately, California and Texas will make the difference in Tuesday’s count.

So what does this mean for the Democrats? Nothing good. If Bernie wins, the moderate Dems will turn Trump or stay home. If Biden wins, the Bernie voters will just stay home.

Flame me in the comments. I can take it.

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