Three polls taken after the last Presidential debate indicate that Joe Biden will lose his home state of Pennsylvania and the election. (See THIS POST to read about my methodology)
Susquehanna, Trafalgar and Insider Advantage all released polls in the past few days that show Biden trailing Trump by up to 2 points in the Keystone State.
Without Pennsylvania, Joe has no path to 270 electoral votes. The flip also gives Trump a massive cushion in case Wisconsin, Michigan or Arizona don’t come through as predicted.
I’ve also reviewed Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, Florida and Wisconsin. No data that I’ve seen would cause me to change my forecast in those battleground states. With that said, and barring any new data coming out, here’s my final prediction for the 2020 presidential election.
Electoral forecast: Trump wins comfortably.
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