Latest Poll Spells Trouble For GOP’s Chances At Winning Swing-District Special Election

A Thursday poll could cast doubt on Republicans’ chances to win the upcoming special election for the seat previously held by ousted GOP Rep. George Santos of New York.

Former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi is leading Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip 48% to 44% among likely voters in the swing district for the Feb. 13 election, according to a Siena College survey. However, the poll also found former President Donald Trump beating President Joe Biden in the district by five points for the general election.

The former president received slightly higher support among Democrats, Republicans and independents in the district than Pilip did, according to the poll. Trump received 88% support from Pilip voters, and 10% of those who backed Suozzi chose the former president over Biden.

Biden won New York’s 3rd Congressional District by eight points in the 2020 election, and Suozzi beat Santos for the seat 55.9% to 43.5% the same cycle. In the 2022 midterms, when Suozzi ran an unsuccessful campaign for governor, Santos won the seat by nearly eight points.

“The Democrats are so desperate, they have already collectively spent over $13 million to compete in a district Joe Biden won by 8 points,” Savannah Viar, spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, told the Daily Caller News Foundation in a statement. “The fact of the matter is, Democrats are wildly unpopular due to their toxic stances on the border and crime.”

Immigration is a top issue to voters in the swing district, according to an Emerson College survey released Jan. 18. The Siena College survey found that Pilip is leading Suozzi by nine points on the question of who would better address the surge of migrants entering the U.S.

Republican advertisements have taken aim at Suozzi for his stance on border security. Democrats have significantly outspent Republicans ahead of the special election, targeting Pilip for being what they view as part of the “MAGA” movement.

The Emerson College poll also found Suozzi leading Pilip by three points among registered voters, but his lead increased to 14 points when only those who were “very likely” to participate in the special election were included.

The Siena College poll surveyed 694 likely voters in the district between Feb. 3 and Feb. 6 with a margin of error of 4.2%.

Suozzi’s campaign, Pilip’s campaign and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s requests for comment.