Trump Needs Catholic Voters To Win

To great Democratic fanfare, Oprah Winfrey and Taylor Swift endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president. Both icons have millions of admirers, yet it remains to be seen if their endorsements will make a meaningful difference on November 5, 2024. Yet, one far more potentially influential “influencer” could make a major difference: Pope Francis.

Earlier this month, Pope Francis pontificated (that is what popes do): “In political morality, in general they say that if you don’t vote, it’s not good, it’s bad. You have to vote, and you have to choose the lesser evil.”

Pope Francis asked: “What is the lesser evil? That woman [Harris], or that man [Trump]?” He concluded: “I don’t know. Each one, in his or her conscience, must think and do this.”

The pope equated Harris’ pro-choice stance with “murder” and, nearly as brutal, likened former President Donald Trump’s stance on illegal immigration with “abuse.”

Although the pope refrained from endorsing either candidate, his comments could sway the outcome of America’s presidential election.

Considering that a swing of 42,922 votes would have shifted Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin to Trump in 2020 — and caused him to be reelected — Pope Francis’ recent comments cannot be ignored. Should his comments result in even a slight change in voting behavior in the battleground states, it could tip the balance toward Trump or Harris.

According to a Pew survey conducted earlier this year, Trump’s support is strongest among white evangelical Protestants (67% favorable) and weakest among agnostics (17% favorable) and atheists (12% favorable). A Trump victory in November, however, depends on his receiving sufficient Catholic votes in key battleground states.

Delving more deeply into the Pew survey, we find a major difference between Hispanic Catholics and Hispanic Protestants. According to the survey, Hispanic Protestants lean toward the Republicans 49-45%, but Hispanic Catholics vote Democrat 60-35%. This suggests the Trump campaign has room to grow among Hispanic Catholics irrespective of the pope’s comments or influence. Moreover, should a representative faction of those Hispanic Catholics choose not to vote in light of the pope’s remarks, that helps Trump’s re-election.

In 2020, Catholics comprised roughly 22% of the U.S. adult population. However, certain states are more Catholic than others. Rhode Island, for example, is 42% Catholic. Mississippi, at the other extreme, is a mere 4% Catholic. Neither state is a battleground state.

Boasting a 25% Catholic population, Wisconsin is the most Catholic of the seven battleground states in 2024. The other six battleground states are as follows: Pennsylvania: 24% Catholic, Arizona: 21%, Nevada: 21%, Michigan: 18%, Georgia: 9%, North Carolina: 9%.

How will Catholics respond to the pope’s recent acidic comments?

Among U.S. adults, a total of 22% consider themselves to be Catholic. “Active white Catholics” constitute 5% of U.S. adults. These potential voters are the likeliest to be swayed by the pope’s words. “Lapsed white Catholics” who, according to Gallup, “identify with the faith but do not attend services regularly” constitute 8% of the adult population. “Hispanic Catholics” representing roughly 7% of the adult population.

According to Gallup, as of August 2020 active white Catholics were “disproportionately pro-Trump, with Gallup data showing about 62% Trump job approval.” Lapsed white Catholics, meanwhile, gave “Trump job approval ratings slightly above the 50% level.”

Hispanic Catholics were predisposed to oppose Trump. According to Gallup, as of August 2020 61% of them disapproved of Trump. But their views on issues, as stated above, are closer to those of the Republican nominee than to Harris.

In what appears to be a razor-thin election between Harris and Trump, the Catholic vote, and particularly the Catholic Hispanic vote, could become a critical deciding factor.

Should Republicans wish to recapture the White House on November 5, they should pray that Catholics, in light of the pope’s recent comments, choose Donald J. Trump as their choice for president. Because without the Catholic vote, Trump stands no chance of winning.

James Carter was a Deputy Undersecretary of Labor and Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under President George W. Bush. Jim Ellis is the founder of the Ellis Insight election analysis service.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.