Trump’s Hardball Agenda Looms Large As Canadians Vote In Key Election

Canadians head to the polls Monday to choose a leader who must confront President Donald Trump’s hardball trade agenda in a country that sells the overwhelming majority of its goods to the U.S.

The election caps a chaotic campaign season dominated by U.S. tariff threats, annexation rhetoric from President Donald Trump and public anger over Canada’s growing economic dependence on its southern neighbor. Prime Minister Mark Carney, a former central banker and climate envoy, took over for Justin Trudeau after his disastrous fall from grace — meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, once poised for a landslide, have faltered badly after early polling advantages evaporated.

“President Trump, stay out of our election,” Poilievre wrote Monday. “The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box. Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state. Today Canadians can vote for change so we can strengthen our country, stand on our own two feet and stand up to America from a position of strength.”

Poilievre has tried to distance himself from Trump amid tariff threats and calls for U.S. annexation, which he repeated Monday.

“Good luck to the Great people of Canada,” the president wrote. “Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. [sic] State of the United States of America.”

Carney, whose leadership campaign leaned heavily on themes of trade resilience, has framed the election as a choice between “Canada Strong” liberals and conservatives who “worship at the altar of Donald Trump.”

“Pierre Poilievre’s plan will leave us divided and ready to be conquered,” Carney said at his party leadership victory speech in Ottawa. “Because a person who worships at the altar of Donald Trump will kneel before him, not stand up to him.”

But Poilievre sees little difference between Carney and Trudeau, framing the prime minister’s faction as “Carney-Trudeau” liberals who will double down on carbon taxes, green regulations and income tax hikes.

Conservatives had initially gained momentum as public frustration boiled over with Trudeau’s scandal-ridden tenure, which saw Canada’s economy squeezed by liberal climate initiatives, mass immigration and a draconian COVID-19 response. With Carney’s polished technocrat image paired with Trump’s tariffs damaging the traditionally more pro-American Conservatives, the Liberal Party managed to claw their way back into the lead heading into election day.

Current CBC News polling forecasts a grim election night for the Conservatives, with a 70% chance of a Liberal majority in Parliament and only a 1% chance of a conservative majority. When Trudeau announced his resignation on January 6, Conservatives led at 44% in national polling averages versus the Liberals’ 20%.

The stakes for Canada’s economic future, and potentially its sovereignty, are enormous given the U.S. is the destination for 77% of Canadian exports, according to Scotia Bank data.

Much of the election backdrop has been shaped by Trump’s escalating confrontations with Ottawa, which include aggressive tariffs on Canadian goods and even floated proposals for U.S. annexation of Canada. Trump’s rhetoric forced Canadian officials into a series of humiliating concessions, including Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s apology to Americans after threatening energy price hikes.

Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. across the country, with final results expected late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.