Trump’s Reality-Driven U-Turn

President Donald Trump did what he had to do.

Last week, Trump dropped an economic neutron bomb by declaring tariffs on virtually every country on the planet — tariffs based not on reciprocal tariff rates, but on trade deficits. After an initial stock dump of approximately 10% and then days of the markets bouncing up and down like a hyperactive corgi, Trump finally announced that he would be undoing his threatened tariff regime with regard to our allies.

In a statement posted to TruthSocial, he said, “Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

This was reality setting in and Trump respecting it. As I wrote last week, “Now, Trump is unlikely to carry his policies to their full fruition if markets respond as expected. He is too canny a politician for that.” Trump lives in the world of reality; he is a pragmatist, not an idealist. And that means that when the stock market tanks, when the effects of his tariff regime are about to wipe out small businesses across America, when the economic pain is imminent, Trump will change course.

And he did.

Some Trump acolytes make the case that this was all a planned rollout. If so, the evidence is sorely lacking; from poorly calibrated posterboards to the bizarrely ignorant comments of presidential adviser Peter Navarro, all this would have to have been a peculiar plan. If the plan was to tariff China and negotiate better trade terms with our allies, the easiest thing to do would have been to tariff China and negotiate better trade terms with our allies. Occam’s razor suggests that Trump unleashed a policy he preferred and then reversed course thanks to blowback. Trump himself acknowledged that he changed policy because people were getting “yippy” and “queasy.” But in effect, it makes no difference whether this was planned chaos or merely reactionary course-changing — the utilitarian nature of the result is the same.

I’ve said before that Trump lives in the world of reality — that he responds to headlines, to incentives and to situations. That’s just as true today as it has always been. And for that, Trump deserves credit.

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