Prominent Election Expert Flags Largely ‘Ignored’ Metric Suggesting 2026 Could Be Good Year For House GOP

University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato on a Friday podcast pointed to a largely overlooked indicator that suggests Republicans could maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) published a poll in April that it says indicates “Republicans are in a strong position to defend and grow the House majority heading into 2026.” Sabato said on “Raging Moderates” that he personally does not believe Republicans will maintain control of the House, but highlighted an analysis published on May 14 in his Crystal Ball newsletter showing the public expects the GOP to succeed — an indicator he said has frequently proven reliable.

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“What are we predicting so far? It would be nearly impossible to predict that Republicans would hold the House, although we’ve just published an analysis in the Crystal Ball from some distinguished political scientists who have used another measure — a measure that has been ignored for the most part: what does the public think will happen? Which party do they believe will hold on? Well, it’s early, but even the early predictions often have been right from the public,” Sabato said. “And they seem to think Republicans will hang on to both the House and Senate.”

Sabato added that he disagrees with the prediction.

“I don’t buy it. Some of my colleagues do. I think the odds are substantial that Democrats will carry the House. We don’t know the margin. We can’t even guesstimate the margin,” he said. “As I say, I think it could go up to around 20 seats if it’s an anti-Trump landslide — obviously higher than that, more than that, as it was in 2018, another anti-Trump landslide.”

The analysis found that 58% of respondents forecast that the GOP will keep the House.

The NRCC in March also deemed 26 House Democrats as “vulnerable” in the 2026 midterms, giving Republicans the chance to grow their slim majority. The NRCC’s list was similar to the list that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released the same month.

However, two April publications in the Crystal Ball suggested Democrats are more likely to retake the chamber in 2026, based on ratings of House races and generic ballot polling.