Economy Surges Six Months Into Trump Term Despite Gloomy Predictions

Some recently released data has spelled good news for parts of the American economy thus far in President Donald Trump’s second term.

Many economists predicted that Trump’s sweeping tariffs could have various negative impacts on the U.S. economy this year, such as contributing to higher inflation rates. Despite this, some recent economic data has indicated that several areas of the domestic economy are doing well.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 61.8 in June, marking its highest level in five months. Still, consumer sentiment remains a substantial 16% below December 2024, according to the report.

Additionally, the stock market surged to new highs during the week of July 14, the Wall Street Journal reported on July 18.

The U.S.’ manufacturing output also rose slightly in June. Manufacturing output ticked up slightly in June, rising 0.1%, following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in May, the Federal Reserve Board reported on July 16.

Moreover, U.S. jobless claims for the week ending July 12 fell by 7,000 to 221,000, the Department of Labor reported on July 17. This marked the fifth straight week of decline.

Similarly, U.S. retail sales growth rebounded more than expected in June, increasing 0.6%, according to advance estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau released July 17.

“After the initial shock of tariff policy changes, everyone kind of went on hold,” Jeremy Barnum, the bank’s chief financial officer of JPMorgan Chase, told the WSJ in an interview published Sunday. Barnum added that “at a certain moment, you just have to move on with your life. And it does feel like some of that is happening just because you can’t delay forever.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on July 8 that the U.S. has raked in about $100 billion in tariff income thus far in 2025, which could increase to $300 billion by the end of the year.

However, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a broad measure of the cost of everyday goods and a key indicator of inflation, rose 2.7% on an annual basis in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on July 15. This marked the highest CPI reading since February.

A survey released in June by the Job Creators Network Foundation (JCNF), found that the majority of small business owners, 58%, said they felt “optimistic” that President Donald Trump and his administration will help small businesses, the Daily Caller News Foundation first reported. Meanwhile, 41% of respondents said they felt “pessimistic” and 1% responded they were “unsure,” the poll found.

“During his first six months in office, President Trump has repeatedly embarrassed the panicans who predicted doom and gloom, from inflation to recession,” White House Spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement provided to the DCNF. “Under President Trump, Americans have seen an end to [former President] Joe Biden’s inflation crisis, multiple expectation-beating jobs reports, record tariff revenue collection, bond and stock market rallies, and historic investment commitments worth trillions that will cement America’s dominance in cutting-edge sectors.”

“And the best is yet to come – as the pro-growth policies of the One Big Beautiful Bill and new trade deals kick in, America’s economic resurgence under President Trump will only accelerate,” Desai added.