Surveys on Political Violence Are Criminally Misleading

In the wake of Charlie Kirk’s assassination, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) posted an Anti-Defamation League chart that purports to prove that right-wingers perpetrate the majority of politically motivated murders in the United States.

“Data isn’t vibes,” she wrote. “If you need vibes, check out the hate filled comments the rightwing will leave on this post and all my posts.”

The ADL graph has been very popular among left-wingers. The problem is that it’s based on one of the most dishonest reports ever.

Let’s begin with the ADL’s recent “Murder and Extremism in the United States” survey. The group said there were 13 murders motivated by extremism in the country last year. Of those, it said 11 were committed by right-wingers.

The ADL has long padded its “right-wing extremism” by including incidents of nonideological criminality by those suspected of being white supremacists. This year, though, virtually none of the incidents listed by the ADL as being committed by “white supremacists” or “far-right anti-government extremists” seemed to have any political motivation. The list includes murders that occurred during attempted prison escapes, sex crimes, robberies and family squabbles, none of which have anything to do with furthering the tenets of white supremacy or any cause. In one of the incidents, the police have yet to find a motive for the homicide.

The only characteristic that qualifies all these acts as “right-wing” is the perpetrators being identified as possible white supremacists, usually by their tattoos. Does the ADL check to see if murderers have sickle and hammer tattoos or copies of Che Guevara’s “The Motorcycle Diaries” in their homes?

In only one of the murders classified as right-wing on the 2024 ADL list was the perpetrator clearly inspired by ideology. It’s not irrelevant that white supremacists are prone to criminality and murder, but these incidents do not rise to political terrorism in a way commonly understood.

On the other hand, the assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, despite it being explicitly ideologically in nature — the shooter wrote an anti-capitalist manifesto — was not categorized as left-wing by the ADL.

It’s fair to say that not all violence is the same. Contra Omar, attempting to quantify political violence isn’t scientific “data.” Many attacks, such as the one on Paul Pelosi, were perpetrated by mentally ill people with no coherent ideological outlook. But a murder over a custody dispute is abhorrent. However, it’s not political violence. Just ask the socialist wearing a “Free Luigi” shirt.

There are many similar surveys of political violence, including those from the FBI, that suffer from similar problems. The most infamous example is the Global Terrorism Database, which is widely used by researchers in these reports. It counted the Las Vegas mass shooter who murdered 58 people in 2017 as a right-wing “anti-government extremist.” In truth, we have no clue what the shooter’s motivations were, unless the GTD has inside information from the FBI. Of the 32 other incidents the organization labeled right-wing terrorism that year, 12 were merely “suspected” of being on the Right (mostly because they had white skin).

Even if the ADL’s list was more accurate, it’s worth noting that a gang member with a swastika tattoo might be a right-winger, and often violent. However, he is, despite the contentions of the Left, ideologically miles away from popular conservatism. The suspected leftist accused of assassinating Kirk harbored ideas that were not alien to the average progressive. No honest person contends that right-wing extremists do not exist or that all progressives are accessories to violence. However, it’s plainly obvious that left-wing groups such as the ADL have concocted misleading reports to smear the Right and hide their side’s increasing radicalism.

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