Scott Bessent Points Out What’s Gone Unnoticed During Shutdown Which Could Stave Off Recession

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pointed out Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union” the administration’s cutback on government spending as what’s gone “unnoticed” during the shutdown, calling it one of the factors helping the U.S. avoid a recession.

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday it would lower the interest rate benchmark by a quarter-point, bringing it to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. CNN’s Jake Tapper asked Bessent about the latest rate slash and the Fed’s warnings that the U.S. could face a recession if cuts continue rapidly, questioning if the country is at risk of a downturn.

“I believe that we are in a transition period here as we are seeing the Trump administration has cut back on government spending. What has gone unnoticed during the shutdown is, for the fiscal year, that in September 30th, the government spent less than it did the year before. And because the GDP grew — the deficit-to-GDP which had been 6.4%, 6.5% deficit, the highest when we weren’t at war — we weren’t in a recession ever. We were able to bring it down to 5.9%,” Bessent said.

“So we are bringing down government spending and I would think that the Fed would want to assist with that,” Bessent added. “Because if we go back and look, MIT just published a study that said 42% of the great inflation of 2022 came from excess government spending. So if we are contracting spending then I would think inflation would be dropping. [If] Inflation is dropping then the Fed should be cutting rates.”

Earlier in 2025, the Trump administration made significant cuts to government spending, exposing how many agencies had been using taxpayer dollars to fund programs at odds with the president’s agenda. With help from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the administration claimed to achieve savings of an estimated $214 billion — about $1,329 per taxpayer — according to an Oct. 4 update on the agency’s website.

Concerns over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy surfaced during the summer when President Donald Trump called for the Fed to lower rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell responded that if Trump had not imposed reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. central bank would have reduced rates sooner.

After months of tension between Powell and Trump, the Fed announced its first rate cut Sept. 17, lowering the benchmark by a quarter-point and setting the target range at 4.00%-4.25%. While a second rate cut was made in October, the ongoing government shutdown has delayed most major economic data releases.

Tapper pressed Bessent further, asking if he believes the U.S. could face a recession if the Fed doesn’t continue cutting rates.

“I think that we are in good shape, but I think that there are sectors of the economy that are in recession and the Fed has caused a lot of distributional problems there with their policies,” Bessent responded. “I wrote a 7,000-word essay on that. We’ve seen the biggest hindrance for housing here is our mortgage rates. So if the Fed brings down mortgage rates then they can end this housing recession. Low-end consumers who have gotten killed under President Biden, these high rates are hurting them because they have debt not assets. So I think that there are sections of the economy that could go into recession.”

Bessent previously outlined his view of a transition period for the U.S. economy, contrasting with Biden Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s approach. Bessent describes the economy as transitory, pointing to a broader phase of shifting, unstable conditions that are not expected to last.

In comparison, Yellen used the term “transitory” under to suggest inflationary spikes were temporary and driven by pandemic-related supply shocks. Yellen’s outlook, however, proved overly optimistic as inflation surged to extreme levels during Biden’s term in office.