Data Suggests A Key Red State Senate Seat Could Fall To Democrats

New polling data suggests that a Senate race in a state Trump won by double digits could fall to Democrats in the midterms.

Incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted is facing a challenge from former three-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his 2024 bid for reelection. But now, just two years after President Donald Trump carried Ohio by 11 percentage points in the 2024 election, Brown is leading Husted by an eight-point margin 53% to 45%, according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday.

Fifty-seven percent of Ohio residents view Trump negatively, while 42% still hold a favorable opinion

Brown has 98% of support among Democrats, whereas Husted only has the support of 86% of support among Republicans, according to the poll.

Fifty-seven percent of Ohio residents view Trump negatively, while 42% still hold a favorable opinion, the poll found. Husted’s ratings are comparable to Trump’s ratings in the state, as 50% view him unfavorably and 41% view him favorably. Brown, on the other hand, holds a 53% favorable rating and 44% unfavorable rating.

Forty-six percent the poll’s respondents are concerned that Husted is too close to Trump. This includes 10% of those who are backing the incumbent senator.

Brown is receiving support from those who are not Democrats, attaining 31% of self-described non-MAGA Republicans and 13% of Republican voters, according to the survey.

The candidates are competing for the Senate seat that Husted currently holds after Gov. Mike DeWine appointed him to replace JD Vance when Vance became Vice President. Ohio’s 2026 Senate race is a special election, so the winner will have to run for reelection in 2028 in order to hold a full six-year term.

In the race for Governor, voters are also divided but by a much smaller margin, the same poll found. Fifty percent support Democrat Amy Acton and 49% support Republican Vivek Ramaswamy.

Trump, Elon Musk, and the Ohio Republican Party have endorsed Ramaswamy for the race. Fourteen percent of voters who support Brown also support Ramaswamy.

The Sentinel Action Fund has endorsed Husted on April 15. “In his first year in the Senate, Republican Senator Jon Husted has already proven he is a conservative fighter who stands up for Ohio values and President [Donald] Trump’s agenda,” Jessica Anderson President of SAF said at the time.

By about a six-point margin, polls have shown that more Democrats than Republicans are very motivated to vote in the upcoming election, according to Fox News’ poll.

Fox News conducted the survey between May 28 and June 1 under the collaborative direction of Democratic polling firm Beacon Research and Republican polling firm Shaw & Company Research. The poll included interviews with 1,015 Ohio registered voters who were surveyed via both phone calls and text message. It had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.