Cook Political Report Shifts South Carolina, Mississippi Toward Democrats and Minnesota Toward GOP

The Cook Political Report adjusted its ratings in three U.S. Senate races on Tuesday, two weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, moving contests in South Carolina and Mississippi in Democrats’ direction and Minnesota’s race toward Republicans.

South Carolina moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, and Mississippi moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Minnesota shifted from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat. Jessica Taylor, Cook’s Senate and governors editor, wrote that candidate quality “can be magnified in ways that defy national trends, especially in midterm years,” and said the moves do not change the forecaster’s overall Senate outlook.

Minnesota: An Opening for Republicans

In Minnesota, Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan faces Republican Michele Tafoya, a former NFL broadcaster making her first run for office, for the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith. Cook said Republicans have been bullish on the race for months because of the state’s welfare fraud scandal and that recent polling shows Flanagan slightly underperforming the national environment.

The Washington Post noted that Minnesota has not elected a Republican senator since Norm Coleman in 2002. The candidates met Friday for their only scheduled debate, where Tafoya pressed Flanagan on fraud in state programs and Flanagan sought to tie Tafoya to President Donald Trump, according to the Post. Flanagan remains favored; Decision Desk HQ’s forecast gives her an 81% chance of winning, The Hill reported.

Deep South Races Tighten

In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who has been campaigning since May 2025, is challenging Republican Sen. Darline Graham, who was appointed to the seat by Gov. Henry McMaster, according to The Hill. The Hill reported that Graham has had to introduce herself to voters in the months before the election, while Andrews has spent more than a year building her profile.

In Mississippi, Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is seeking reelection against Democrat Scott Colom, a district attorney who has drawn growing national attention. Former President Barack Obama appeared in an ad backing Colom last week, and a national Democratic political action committee committed $1.2 million in television advertising on Tuesday, The Hill reported. Polling in the race is limited, and even surveys from Democratic pollsters have shown Hyde-Smith ahead.

A “Likely” rating indicates a race that is not currently considered competitive but could become so, while “Lean” signals a competitive contest in which one party still holds an edge. Both South Carolina and Mississippi remain in the Republican column, and Minnesota remains in the Democratic column.

The moves come as both parties scramble to expand the map in the closing stretch. Cook’s current ratings list seven Senate races as toss-ups, six of them for Republican-held seats, including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas, along with an open Democratic seat in Michigan.

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