Is $5 Gas Coming to the Midwest? Refinery Breakdown Pushes Michigan to $4.84

Drivers across the Great Lakes are paying sharply more at the pump after a breakdown at an ExxonMobil refinery near Chicago, and one analyst warns $5 gas could show up in many places.

Michigan’s average for regular hit $4.84 a gallon Saturday, according to AAA. That’s up from $4.61 on Thursday morning and $4.55 a week ago, CBS Detroit reported.

Illinois averaged $4.90 on Saturday, Wisconsin $4.52, Ohio $4.42 and Indiana $4.02. The national average stood at $4.30.

Prices kept rising overnight. On Friday, Illinois averaged $4.81 and Wisconsin $4.32, NBC Chicago reported, putting Wisconsin up 20 cents in a single day.

Energy analyst Tom Kloza traced the spike to problems with a 50,000-barrel-per-day catalytic reformer at ExxonMobil’s Joliet refinery southwest of Chicago, the Daily Caller News Foundation reported.

A catalytic reformer turns low-octane fuel into higher-octane material for gasoline. An ExxonMobil spokesperson told CNN the company is “working to resolve an operational issue” but gave no timeline for a fix.

“While I do not believe these crazy numbers can be sustained, they are pointing to $5/gallon prices in many cases,” said Kloza, chief energy advisor at Gulf Oil.

He said Michigan was hit hardest because wholesale gasoline on the Wolverine Pipeline, which carries fuel into the state from other Great Lakes refineries, is selling at the highest price.

Kloza also pointed to modest maintenance at a Cenovus refinery in Ohio. He said the Joliet problem shows American refining has entered a “zero tolerance” era, where one breakdown can jolt an entire region.

He does expect relief. “Ultimately I believe that Great Lakes gasoline prices will be falling before the month ends,” Kloza said.

Battleground States Feel the Pinch

The jump is landing in two midterm battlegrounds. Polls show tight Senate races in Michigan and Ohio, with the cost of living and pump prices among voters’ top issues, Bloomberg reported.

Democrats must hold their Senate seat in Michigan, a state Trump won in 2024, to have a shot at flipping the chamber. Republicans see Ohio as crucial to keeping their majority.

The region had little cushion. Midwest gasoline inventories were already at a record low for this time of year, according to Energy Information Administration data, and national stockpiles fell by 3 million barrels last week.

The pain is steep compared with last year. Michigan drivers paid an average of $3.04 a gallon for regular a year ago, according to AAA.

Michigan prices had actually been easing before the refinery trouble. The state averaged $4.84 a month ago, the same as Saturday’s average, before drifting down to $4.55 last week.

With Election Day on Nov. 3, Kloza’s forecast that prices will fall before the month ends may be the most closely watched prediction in the region.

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