Is Susan Collins in Trouble? Fox Poll Shows Maine Senate Race Tied at 49%

Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson are tied at 49 percent each among Maine likely voters, according to a Fox News poll released Thursday, less than two weeks before Election Day.

The survey was conducted Oct. 16-20, entirely after the candidates’ Oct. 15 debate. It interviewed 1,689 registered voters, including 1,514 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points for likely voters.

Collins, first elected about three decades ago, is seeking a sixth term. Fox noted she is the only Republican senator running for reelection this year in a state President Trump lost in 2024, when he fell short by 7 points.

Democrats see the seat as essential to winning the Senate. Maine voters prefer a Democratic-led chamber 53 percent to 45 percent, though 9 percent of Collins backers want Democratic control.

The poll points to an enthusiasm gap. Seventy-nine percent of Democrats said they are extremely interested in the election, compared with 61 percent of Republicans, and Jackson leads by 4 points among voters who say they are certain to vote.

Timing may matter. About one in five Mainers said they have already voted, and they favor Jackson by 40 points. But a slim majority plans to vote on Election Day, and that group backs Collins by 12 points.

“Collins is no stranger to outrunning her party, but Democrats hold an 18-point enthusiasm advantage,” said Mikaela Linder of Beacon Research, the Democratic firm that conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw.

Trump is a drag in the state, with 37 percent approving and 62 percent disapproving. Fifty-three percent worry Collins votes with Trump too much, while 46 percent worry Jackson is too liberal.

Both candidates are underwater personally, with Collins at 47 percent favorable and 51 percent unfavorable and Jackson at 47 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable. Collins leads among independents by 13 points.

Education is the sharpest divide. Jackson leads college graduates by 23 points, while Collins carries voters without a degree by 16. She leads rural voters by 7 points, well below the 18-point margin she won them by in 2020.

“Republicans appear to be struggling with White rural voters this cycle, and Maine is no exception,” Shaw said, adding that GOP candidates need something like a 65-35 split among them to offset Democratic strength in urban areas.

Other recent surveys also show a close contest. A Suffolk University poll of 500 likely voters taken Oct. 8-11 had Jackson at 49 percent and Collins at 47 percent, within its margin of error.

In the governor’s race, the Fox survey found Democrat Hannah Pingree leading Republican Bobby Charles 49 percent to 39 percent, with independent Rick Bennett at 9 percent. Nearly one in five Collins supporters back a candidate other than Charles.

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