Major Election Forecaster Shifts Kansas Senate Race To Toss-Up for Seat Dems Haven’t Held Since FDR

Cook Political Report, a prominent elections forecaster, shifted the Kansas Senate race Tuesday from leaning Republican to a “toss up.”

The new rating came as Republican Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall held only a 0.4% lead against Democratic Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton as of Sunday. Cook Political Report also shifted the Senate races in North Carolina and New Hampshire toward Democrats.

Kansas last elected a Democrat to the Senate in November 1932, when former Democratic Kansas Sen. George McGill won reelection. He left office on Jan. 3, 1939, marking the last time a Democratic senator represented Kansas.

The Republican Party controls the office of the attorney general, Secretary of State and both chambers of the state Legislature. The Democratic Party controls the office of the governor.

Marshall faced scrutiny over a report that he sued 700 patients for outstanding medical bills during his time as an OB-GYN, which led to 81 arrests, The New York Times reported in September. The unpaid bills ranged from several thousand dollars to as little as $101.

Marshall’s campaign did not respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.

Republican political action committees (PACs) paused or cut spending from battleground states, such as North Carolina and Georgia, and poured large sums of money into Kansas and other red states. The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), the main GOP super PAC, invested $14 million in an ad campaign during the week of Oct. 5 to defend Marshall while he holds a small lead in the polls.

Democrats outspent Republicans in general election ad spending in Kansas, as Democrats spent $8.2 million and Republicans spent $7 million, according to AdImpact Politics.

The Senate campaign arm paused spending in North Carolina after pouring $32 million in the race between Republican North Carolina Senate nominee Michael Whatley and former Democratic North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper. Polls found Cooper leading Whatley by an average of nine points, according to RealClearPolling.

The Senate Leadership Fund planned to spend $5 million to support Republican South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham after polls indicated she could lose to Democratic South Carolina Senate nominee Annie Andrews.

No Going Back PAC, a super PAC aligned with President Donald Trump, has no planned ads for the week of Oct. 5 in North Carolina and was prepared to spend under $90,000 in Georgia, according to Punchbowl News. The super PAC, along with MAGA Inc. and the Safety and Affordability PAC, spent more than $163 million on advertising and air time since Sept. 1, according to KARK, an NBC News affiliate.

Old North Action, a pro-Whatley super PAC, cut $6.5 million from its buy for the month of October, Semafor reported.

Republicans in Texas expected to spend between $150 million and $200 million to save Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton from losing to Democratic Texas Senate nominee James Talarico, who led Paxton by 2.8 points, according to RealClearPolling.

Democrats were in a strong position to take back the House and Senate as of Tuesday, with RealClearPolitics’ Generic Congressional Vote showing Democrats at 50.6% and Republicans at 42.3%. More than half of registered voters, 53%, said they would vote for Democrats if the election were currently held, while 41% preferred Republicans, according to a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll from Sept. 23. Independent voters preferred Democrats by a 25-point margin, according to the poll.

Fifteen key House races shifted toward Democrats on Sept. 25.

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