More Than 23 Million Have Already Voted. Can Republicans Close the Early-Vote Gap on Election Day?

More than 23 million Americans had already voted in person or by mail as of Friday afternoon, with early voting running well ahead of the 2022 midterm pace in several battleground states.

Georgia had recorded almost 1.5 million early votes, North Carolina more than 1.2 million, Florida almost 2.2 million and Texas more than 2.8 million, the Guardian reported, citing the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

Michigan and Ohio had each passed 900,000 ballots. In Georgia, early votes already equal more than 40% of total turnout in the 2022 midterms, while Texas is at 35% and North Carolina at 33%.

Registered Democrats account for 45% of early ballots cast, compared with 30% for Republicans. The gap is especially wide in North Carolina, Kansas and Iowa, all states that traditionally favor Republicans.

Those figures track returned ballots by party registration, not votes for any candidate.

Election Day Still Looms Large

Republicans have historically been much more likely to vote on Election Day, and GOP candidates have won those votes, an ABC News analysis noted.

In 2024, Democrats won mail ballots by 24 points, while Republicans won early in-person votes by 14 points and Election Day votes by 16 points, according to estimates from a large Pew Research Center survey.

Polling suggests Democrats are more enthusiastic this year. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found 72% of Democratic voters said they were certain to vote, compared with 65% of Republicans.

“If lower-propensity Republican voters turn out to counteract what appears to be an enthusiastic Democratic base, Republicans will be more competitive,” the ABC analysis concluded.

Some of the surge may simply be voters casting ballots earlier than usual. Many early voters would have voted on Election Day anyway, MIT political scientist Charles Stewart told NPR.

“It also kind of reflects the large amount of money that’s in this campaign that’s going into retail politics, going door to door, and just making sure that supporters are energized,” Stewart said.

He said Democrats still hold an advantage in mail voting, but that gap is smaller than in 2022 as more Democrats shift to early in-person voting.

In Florida, Republicans held a narrow 69,280 to 68,650 edge in early in-person voting as of Tuesday, Florida Politics reported. Democrats had returned about 54,000 more mail ballots, but GOP ballots were coming back at a higher rate.

Nationally, more than 57 million mail ballots have been requested or sent, up from 52 million in 2022, according to TargetSmart data cited by the Guardian.

Election Day is Nov. 3, and control of both chambers of Congress is at stake.

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