Democrats’ Statehouse Sweep Puts Electoral College End-Run Within Reach for 2028

Tuesday’s blue wave did not stop at Congress, and conservatives are warning that it may now threaten the Electoral College itself.

Democrats won control of the governorship and both legislative chambers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. That is enough to push the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact past the 270-electoral-vote threshold it needs to take effect, Axios reported. That could happen in time for the 2028 presidential election and without a constitutional amendment.

Under the compact, member states agree to award their electoral votes to whichever candidate wins the national popular vote, no matter how their own voters cast ballots. It takes effect only once the members together control at least 270 electoral votes.

Nineteen states have passed it since it was introduced in 2006, worth 222 electoral votes, according to the New Republic. If all five new Democratic trifectas join, the total would jump to 283.

In practice, that would end the possibility of a candidate winning the White House while losing the national popular vote. Four of the five presidents who did so were Republicans, including Trump in 2016.

There are real hurdles. Axios noted that the five states would still have to pass the compact, and it is not clear the new majorities will make it a priority.

History offers some reason for doubt. Michigan Democrats failed to pass the compact when they held a trifecta in 2023 and 2024, and Nevada’s Democratic governor vetoed it in 2019, arguing it would hurt the state’s role in presidential elections.

There is also a constitutional question. The Constitution lets each state appoint electors “in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct,” but Article I bars interstate compacts without the consent of Congress. With Democrats in charge of both chambers, they could try to grant that consent. They still lack 60 Senate votes to get past a filibuster.

‘Power grabs’

Conservatives see the compact as one piece of a larger plan. A Washington Examiner commentary argued that Democrats will spend the next two years “planning the extreme power grabs” they have floated since 2016, including abolishing the Electoral College, statehood for Washington, D.C., and packing the Supreme Court.

The Examiner pointed out that these ideas were not confined to the fringe. Sens. Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg all endorsed eliminating the Electoral College during the 2020 primary, and the 2024 Democratic platform endorsed D.C. statehood.

“If Democrats win the presidency in 2028, why would they not have their likely one-off senators in Texas, Kansas, and Iowa burn their political goodwill by rigging the system in the Democratic Party’s favor for decades to come?” the Examiner asked.

The idea is drawing wide attention on the right. Newsmax also flagged the threat Wednesday.

What to watch

The new legislatures take office in January. Whether lawmakers in Harrisburg, Lansing, Phoenix, Madison and Carson City take up the compact will show whether Democrats intend to change how Americans pick a president before the next one is elected.

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