Gas at $3.87 a Gallon, Down 47 Cents in a Month, but Thanksgiving Could Still Set a Price Record

The national average price of regular gasoline fell to $3.87 a gallon on Friday, down about 47 cents from a month ago, according to AAA.

That is roughly 4 cents lower than Thursday and about 20 cents below a week ago. But it is still about 79 cents higher than a year ago, when drivers paid $3.08.

Diesel remains painful for truckers and farmers. It averages $6.06 a gallon, not far below the record $6.53 set on Sept. 22.

The national average slipped under $4 on Tuesday for the first time since July 19, ending a 113-day run at $4 or more, AAA Oregon/Idaho said. That was the second-longest such stretch on record, behind 158 days in 2022.

Before this year, the national average had never topped $4 in November, said Marie Dodds, the group’s public affairs director.

“Drivers are finally getting some real savings at the pumps and that may spur some road trips by folks who were still on the fence about traveling for Thanksgiving,” Dodds said.

Why prices are falling

The drop has little to do with last week’s election, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote in his industry newsletter, NPR reported.

“Many will assume the election had something to do with it, but that’s a myth,” De Haan wrote. “For now, it’s the seasonal shift, not politics, driving the relief at the pump.”

Demand fades as the weather cools, refineries wrap up maintenance and stations switch to cheaper winter-blend fuel. This year the switch came Sept. 1 instead of the usual Sept. 15, because of the war in Iran.

Jorge León, head of geopolitics at Rystad Energy, told NPR the biggest factor is cheaper Brent crude, now around $90 a barrel, as more Middle East oil moves and U.S.-Iran diplomacy picks up.

“If we see renewed escalation, much of last week’s oil price decline could quickly reverse,” León warned.

That risk flared overnight. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed it destroyed a U.S. early-warning radar in Bahrain, CoinDesk reported, though U.S. crude held near $88 a barrel.

Even with the slide, November is the most expensive November on record for gas, AAA said in a Thursday release. North Carolina had the cheapest gas at $3.18, while Hawaii and California topped $5.60.

De Haan has projected the national average could reach about $3.75 by Thanksgiving, which would still beat GasBuddy’s 2022 holiday record of $3.56, Quartz reported.

Fuel has been a big driver of inflation this fall. The government’s gasoline index rose 1% in October after jumping 9.1% in September, CNBC reported.

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