Texas Senate Showdown: Paxton and Talarico Make Final Pitches as Late Polls Show a Close Race

Texas voters are choosing between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico on Tuesday in a Senate race that could help decide which party controls the chamber.

Democrats have not won a Senate race in Texas since 1988. Final public polls show Talarico narrowly ahead, though several surveys have the race within the margin of error, USA Today reported.

The last New York Times/Siena poll, taken Oct. 27 to Nov. 1 among 1,215 voters, had Talarico at 50% and Paxton at 43%. An AtlasIntel poll over a similar period had Talarico ahead 51.3% to 45.4%, USA Today reported.

Other recent surveys show a tighter contest. Fox News had the race tied at 49% in October, and Emerson College found Talarico ahead 48% to 46%, within its margin of error.

A RealClearPolitics average of polls from Oct. 15 to Nov. 1 showed Talarico up about 2.5 points, the Washington Examiner reported. The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up.

In the governor’s race, the same Times/Siena poll showed Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa statistically tied, 47% to 48%.

Closing arguments

Paxton spent his final campaign stop in Allen telling supporters that a Talarico win could hand Democrats the Senate. “Texas has never been this close,” he said, FOX 4 reported.

“We have never been this close to losing everything that we hold dear; our jobs, our livelihoods, our way of life in Texas. If Texas falls, we don’t have another Texas to move to,” Paxton said.

Paxton paired promises of tax relief with a plea for Republicans to turn out. He had planned to end his “Come and Take It” bus tour at the Alamo but canceled that event.

Talarico closed his “Clear Eyes, Full Hearts” tour by casting the race as working families against the wealthy and powerful. “We are running against the most corrupt politician in Texas history, Ken Paxton,” he said.

In a podcast released Monday, Talarico said he would “love” to work with President Donald Trump to fulfill what he called “the promise of MAGA” on health care, education and housing.

“If he wants to tackle the housing problem, Donald Trump is a builder,” Talarico said. Trump, who backed Paxton for the nomination, has repeatedly attacked Talarico and nicknamed him “Talafreako.”

Paxton’s campaign has faced questions about controversies from his time as attorney general, which Cook cited in its final rating. Prediction market Kalshi gave Talarico about a 71% chance of winning, according to the Examiner.

Polls in most of Texas are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time.

As of Tuesday morning, the Texas secretary of state‘s results page showed no votes reported. Polls are not results, and any call will come from the AP or network decision desks.

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