Latest polls hint who will be on main stage for first GOP debate

The first Republican primary debate is just four days away and several GOP candidates are on the edge of making or missing the the cut.

While Fox has not released which five polls it will use or at what point it will make a decision, Real Clear Politics’ average of national polls offers a picture of who will and who won’t make it to the 9pm eastern primary debate event on Thursday.

10 candidates will be featured in the debate with all others being offered a pre-debate forum that will air at 5pm.

Of the ten spots, eight look relatively solid. Trump, Walker, Bush, Carson, Cruz, Huckabee, Rubio and Paul all appear ready to make the cut.

Jinday, Santorum, Fiorina and Graham are set to be featured in the pre-debate event, if they decide to take part at all.

Three candidates are left jockeying for the 9th and 10th spot in the main debate. Kasich, Christie and Perry are closely packed with between 2.5 and 3.5% of the polling average.

All three of the on-the-bubble candidates have seen relatively stable polling numbers for weeks with their share of the polls varying by only a point or two.

Who ends up with one of the last two spots will likely come down to Fox’s choice of polls.