Sunday Electoral Update: New Polls – Clinton losing ground in 2 key states

A set of NBC News/WSJ/Marist polls released Sunday shows Hillary continuing to lose ground to Donald Trump in key battleground states.

The polls covered Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire for both a 2-way Trump vs. Clinton race and a 4-way Clinton, Trump, Stein, Johnson match-up. The polls were taken from September 6th thru the 8th so events such as Johnson’s Aleppo mis-step, Clinton’s ‘basket of deplorables’ insult and her “medical episode” on Sunday will not have figured into the results.

Arizona and Georgia came in about where polls have been showing. Surprises in Nevada and New Hampshire should have Democrats panicking.

Arizona NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll 9-11-16

In Arizona, the poll showed things tightening just a bit between the candidates. Trump came out on top in both the 2 and 4 way races, but inside the margin of error.

Between undecideds and those that might change their mind, 9% of Arizona likely voters could pick a different candidate come November if the race is just between Trump and Clinton.

Donald Trump’s efforts to stay-on-message seem to be paying off. This poll showed that his favorable/unfavorable numbers are better than Hillary’s. Trump was viewed unfavorably by 58% of respondents while Hillary topped Donald with 61% of those asked saying they had an unfavorable view of the Democrat nominee.

Georgia NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll 9-11-16

Georgia is still likely Republican after reviewing this poll.

Trump holds a 3 point advantage over Clinton in a 2-way race and a 2-point lead in a 4-way contest.

Between undecideds and those that might change their mind, 7% of Georgian likely voters could pick a different candidate come November if the race is just between Trump and Clinton.

Trump’s gain in favorable/unfavorables continues in the Georgia survey. Trump was seen as favorable by 39% to Clinton’s 38% and bested Hillary in the unfavorable statistic as 59% of respondents said Hillary was unfavorable while Donald came in at 54%.

Nevada NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll 9-11-16

This is the first of two polls that might explain the panic in the Democrat party and what’s driving them to take extreme measures like trying to kick Donald Trump and Mike Pence off the Minnesota ballot.

Nevada was looking to go to Hillary without much of a fight, but this poll moves if from leaning Democrat to a dead-heat.

Clinton/Kaine hold a one point advantage over Trump/Pence in a 2-way race. The advantage goes to Trump by one point if Stein and Johnson are added.

Between undecideds and those that might change their mind, 7% of Arizona likely voters could pick a different candidate come November if the race is just between Trump and Clinton.

Trump still has some work to do to win over Nevada likely voters. Here, Clinton did slightly better than Donald. Clinton’s favorable/unfavorable mix was 40/55 to Trump’s 39/57.

New Hampshire NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll 9-11-16

New Hampshire likely voters demonstrate the recent trend of voters turning away from Hillary and towards Donald and take another blue state to “toss-up.”

Poll respondents chose Clinton over Trump by a 1-point margin in a 2-way race where she had led by as much as 9 points as recently as August 28th. In a 4-way contest her lead increases to 2-points, which is still within the margin of error.

Undecideds and those that might choose another candidate came in at 10% of those responding.

While both candidates are not viewed favorably, Trump has a little more work to do than Hillary. Clinton’s favorable/unfavorable numbers come in at 38/59 while Trump’s are 36/61.

Presidential Electoral Map 9-11-16

Considering these polls missed the Johnson and Clinton public displays of “oops,” current polling trends and the favorable/unfavorable data. Our analysis moves Nevada and New Hampshire from leaning democrat to “toss-up” pulling 10 electoral votes from Hillary’s count. Minnesota is getting more important by the day.