The first named storm of 2018 may show up this weekend in the Gulf

A tropical disturbance is crossing the Yucatan Penninsula this evening and the National Hurricane Center says that it is very likely that it will develop into a named storm sometime this weekend.

The depression started out with only a 40% chance of turning into something tropical in nature, but as of today, the NHC is forecasting that Invest #90L will likely become tropical storm Alberto over the Memorial Day weekend.

A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, although the associated associated shower and thunderstorm activity is poorly organized due to strong upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to form during the weekend over the eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. Please see high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service for information on gale warnings associated with this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday  afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on these threats, please see products issued by your local weather office.

• Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
• Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

The forecasted track of 90L takes it into the eastern Gulf of Mexico which is expected to drench eastern Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and most of Florida next week.

Computer models