Final 2024 NY Times/Siena College Polls Shows Contradictions, Surprising Shifts In Key States

The New York Times/Siena College final presidential election polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump locked in a dead heat, with just one point separating the candidates just two days before Election Day.

a “larger disparity” than in previous data and raising the possibility that “the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again.”

Polls between the candidates have significantly tightened over the past few weeks, with political pundits noting how close the race will be by Election Day. While NYT/Siena College typically identifies a “clear favorite,” regardless of the outcome, their final polls state this will “not be one of those elections.”

Data from the polls show that in a matchup across several key swing states, 48% of the 7,879 respondents surveyed said they would support Harris, while 47% would back the former president. Less than 1% of respondents indicated they had already voted for a third-party candidate, and 4% either did not know who they were voting for or refused to answer. [Related: CDN’s 2024 Electoral Map Prediction]

In a breakdown of several battleground states, Harris is leading by one point in Georgia and three points in both North Carolina and Wisconsin. In contrast, Trump is ahead by four points in Arizona, one point in Michigan, and the two candidates are dead even in Pennsylvania, according to NYT/Siena College.

A margin of error of plus or minus 1.3 percentage points across the seven battleground states and approximately plus or minus 3.5 percentage points in each state poll has been recorded. The outlet confirmed that 16% of white Democrats were more likely to respond to the polls than white Republicans, creating a “larger disparity” than in previous data and raising the possibility that “the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again.”

While the outlet states that Harris’ position in the Electoral College “isn’t necessarily improved,” the vice president has made gains among her party’s key voting blocs and some swing states compared to the last round of polling. The NYT/Siena College poll found in their final round that Harris’s support among black and Hispanic voters increased, now gaining 84% of black voters’ support compared to 80%, and rising from 55% to 56% among Hispanics.

Harris has also gained support in states where she previously struggled, with her best battleground results coming from her efforts in Nevada. According to the data, Harris now leads the former president by three points in the swing state, which had President Joe Biden losing to Trump by double digits before withdrawing from the race in July.

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