Buckle Up, America. The Shutdown Fight Appears To Be Far From Over

Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly said on Sunday the shutdown could end this week if only “Republicans come to the negotiating table on health care subsidies.”

In other words, if Republicans would just behave themselves and cave to Democrats’ demands, everything would be fine. Kelly was once considered a serious legislator. Now he’s just another political hack, but at least he stays on message.

Political and tactical reasons explain the shutdown entering its fourth week with no end in sight. The raw political explanation is that neither party feels enough pain to feel a need to back down.

True, a few House Republican wobblies like California’s Kevin Kiley want the House to come back for some nebulous purpose. Having already passed a clean, non-partisan short-term continuing resolution (CR), Speaker Mike Johnson is leaving House members in their districts to limit the ability of the clueless caucus to weaken the Republican position.

A few Senate Democrats likewise have broken from Great Leader Chuck Schumer, preferring to end his shutdown while continuing the fight. But, mostly, moderate Senate Democrats tow the party line as they are just scared to death of being attacked by far-left loonies.

Republicans honestly blame Democrats for the shutdown and believe the American people will agree with them, mostly. Democrats believe they are fighting the good fight and their far-left No Kings base demands they do so.

Neither side is inclined to suspend the underlying fight to reopen the government. On the contrary, both sides want this fight, and so it continues until sufficient political pain builds to produce a bipartisan chorus of “uncle, already.” Better get your Snickers bars. It could be a long wait.

Tactically, the shutdown results from the positions the two sides adopted at the outset. Democrats enacted enhanced Obamacare tax credits in 2021 and extended them in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, expanding eligibility to able-bodied men and illegals, among others. They let the extension expire at the end of 2025 to minimize the budgetary sticker price, expecting to retain control of Congress and the White House and so easily extend the tax credits again.  Oops.

The Democrats’ position is straightforward and, from their perspective, perfectly logical. They see extending the tax credits as maintaining their favored policy status quo, which it is.

Republicans’ advanced their clean CR to keep the government open through November. This meant they were embracing the status quo on Biden-era appropriations levels and current law on the subsidies including their expiration.

We have a case of dualing status quos – the Republican position of current law for both appropriations and the subsidies vs. the Democrats’ position of current policy for both areas. Democrats interpret the Republican position is cruel while Republicans interpret the Democrats’ position as unconscionable, increasing the deficit by spending $1.5 trillion on health care for illegals and the able-bodied.

In a city where inertia is the true king, a battle over status quo interpretations lacks a natural middle ground and hence is a tough nut to crack; hence the shutdown stalemate.

Republicans could yet try another approach. Democrats want $1.5 trillion higher spending. OK, so demand they pay for it with offsetting spending cuts. Democrats are always demanding Republicans “pay for” their tax cuts with tax hikes elsewhere. Republicans should demand Democrats pay for their spending hikes with spending cuts.

Democrats would scoff at the idea, naturally, but by emphasizing the danger of an even bigger budget deficit Republicans would be in a stronger position politically. Would this end the shutdown?

Highly unlikely. That test of wills is likely to continue, especially if Senator Kelly has any say.

J.D. Foster is the former chief economist at the Office of Management and Budget and former chief economist and senior vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He now resides in relative freedom in the hills of Idaho.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.