Socialist Zohran Mamdani’s Once Massive Lead Evaporates With Just One Week To Go, Poll Shows

Democratic New York City mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani, a self-avowed socialist, has seen his lead greatly shrink over the past month, with just over a week to go before Election Day on Nov. 4, according to a Suffolk University poll released Monday.

Mamdani received the support of 43.8% of likely voters polled — 10 points ahead of independent candidate and former Democratic New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who polled at 33.6% — with Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa trailing at 10.8% and 7.2% of respondents undecided, according to the survey. A previous Suffolk University poll conducted in mid-September showed Mamdani with a landslide lead, garnering 45.0% of support compared to 25.2% for Cuomo, 8.6% for Sliwa and 9.4% undecided.

Cuomo was able to slice his deficit in half in just one month due to gaining substantial ground with Hispanic and independent voters, according to a press release from Suffolk University, citing data from the two polls. The former governor went from being behind Mamdani by 30 points among Hispanic voters in September to being ahead by one point among the demographic the next month. Similarly, Cuomo went from trailing Mamdani among independent voters by 18 points in September to being ahead by 10 points among independents in October.

The disgraced former governor lost the Democratic mayoral nomination to Mamdani on June 24 but remains a registered member of the party.

Respondents who indicated they were planning or leaning toward voting for Mamdani in the poll released Monday overwhelmingly said their choice was intended more as a vote for the socialist than against Cuomo — with 79.45% of Mamdani voters saying they were voting “for Mamdani” while only 6.85% of them said their vote was one “against Cuomo.” However, among Cuomo voters, just 40.48% said their vote was “for Cuomo” while 39.88% said it was “against Mamdani.”

Mamdani has long been under scrutiny regarding his views toward antisemitism.

On Oct. 17, the candidate posted a campaign trail photo on X with Imam Siraj Wahhaj, who, though unindicted, was listedby law enforcement as a potential conspirator in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing that killed six in New York City and injured over 1,042 more.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who for months had repeatedly dodged the question of whether he backed his party’s nominee for New York mayor, finally issued a written endorsement of Mamdani on Friday. However, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer — the highest ranking Jewish elected official in U.S. history — has yet to endorse the socialist candidate. Jeffries and Schumer both represent New York City in Congress.

Incumbent Democratic New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who dropped out of the mayoral race in late September following an ill-fated independent bid, endorsed Cuomo on Thursday — one day before Jeffries would endorse Mamdani.

Suffolk University polled 500 voters across all five boroughs of New York City from Oct. 23 to Oct. 26 who said they were to some degree likely to vote in the mayoral election. The university conducted the survey via live telephone interviews in both English and Spanish. The poll reported a margin of error due to sampling of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.