Republicans Pull Ahead In Deep Blue State, Polls Show

The top two Republican candidates in California’s 2026 gubernatorial race are once again leading their Democratic rivals, according to recent polls.

With roughly four months until the state’s jungle primary, when the top two performers advance to the general election regardless of party, Democratic contenders continue to lose ground. A new Emerson College Polling survey released Wednesday shows GOP candidate Steve Hilton leading with 17% support, followed by fellow Republican Chad Bianco and Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell tied at 14%. Former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter trails at 10%.

The survey, conducted Feb. 13-14 among 1,000 likely voters, captured responses on the upcoming election and current concerns about California. Compared with Emerson’s December poll, Hilton gained five points, Swalwell two points, Bianco one point and Porter lost one point.

Among Democrats surveyed, Swalwell led with 23% support, followed by Porter at 14%, billionaire candidate Tom Steyer at 12% and 22% undecided. Republican support split between Hilton (38%) and Bianco (37%), with 6% backing Swalwell and 11% undecided. Among independents, 22% back Hilton, 12% support Bianco, 4% favor Swalwell and 30% are undecided.

The poll comes on the heels of a second survey conducted by Tavern Research and passed through Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra’s campaign, which surveyed 1,097 likely voters between Feb. 2-5. According to the data, Bianco led with 20% from supporters, followed by Hilton at 12% and Swalwell at 10%.

With more than ten Democrats running for governor, the party’s candidates are splitting the vote ahead of the primary election.

Elections expert Paul Mitchell warned KCRA3 Political Director Ashley Zavala on Sunday that there is roughly a 12% chance two Republicans could advance to the general election in California. While the odds are slim, Mitchell cautioned Democrats against dismissing the possibility outright.

Hilton, speaking to the Daily Caller News Foundation on Monday, pushed back on the scenario, saying it was unlikely. Instead, he warned that two Democrats would most likely face off in November unless voters consolidate behind a single Republican — singling out Bianco in the process.

Hilton’s criticism of Bianco appears to mark a new strategy for his campaign, which began during the January gubernatorial debate. At the time of the event, Hilton called for Bianco to exit the race over allegations that he knelt with Black Lives Matter protesters during the 2020 riots.

Hilton’s campaign escalated the attacks on Wednesday, responding to Bianco’s post of the Tavern Research poll. In a response, the campaign dismissed the survey as a “fake” Democrat “internal poll” that they claim Democrats are pushing to “boost the weaker Republican.”

“They know the BLM Bianco video will crater Republican turnout. Steve Hilton is leading in reputable independent polls, including the latest Emerson poll,” Hilton’s campaign wrote.