Abdul El-Sayed Had Big Night, But He Still Has Work To Do With Key Demo
Democratic Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed will have to win the support of non-college-educated, lower-income and non-white voters in the Michigan Senate race, after struggling to make inroads with that demographic in Tuesday’s Senate primary.
El-Sayed narrowly won the primary 48.5% to 47.5% against Democratic Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens. The further-left candidate will need to better appeal to non-college-educated and lower-to-middle income voters to be competitive against former Republican Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers in November.
Stevens won more than 50% of the vote in counties where less than 30% had a college education, according to Politico. El-Sayed won nearly 60% of the vote in counties where at least 30% of residents held a bachelor’s degree.
El-Sayed won in Ottawa County and Allegan County, where median household incomes were $90,502 and $83,000 per year, respectively, according to the Census. Ogemaw County and Roscommon County, where Stevens won by nearly 30 points, had median household incomes of $54,000 and $55,000 per year, respectively, according to the counties’ censuses.
In the two counties, 17% and 20% of residents hold a bachelor’s degree or higher, respectively, according to the Censuses. Over a quarter of residents, 27%, in Allegan County, and 38% of residents in Ottawa County, hold at least a bachelor’s degree.
El-Sayed won by significant margins in Leelanau County and Grand Traverse County, which have median household incomes of over $99,000 and $81,000 per year, respectively. The white population in those counties is over 90%.
El-Sayed’s lack of support from non-college educated, lower-to-middle income voters could spell trouble for him in the general election, given that President Donald Trump made significant inroads with blue- collar and working class voters in Michigan during the 2024 election.
John Sellek, the CEO and chief strategist of Michigan-based public relations firm Harbor Strategic, found that Stevens won residents without college degrees in mid-Michigan and in the state’s northern counties, according to News From the States. Independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders won these counties during the 2016 presidential election.
El-Sayed performed well in wealthier areas that had universities as further-left and Democratic Socialist of America (DSA) candidates continue to perform well with young voters.
Ottawa County and other counties in West Michigan consist of college educated, higher-income residents who tend to vote more often.
“It’s attracting more college-educated, higher-income people who vote more often,” Corwin Smidt, an associate professor of political science at Michigan State University, told News From The States. “Sort of the Chicago or former urban transplant who decided Grand Rapids is enough of a compromise between Midwest and urban life.”
El-Sayed won in communities that do not typically have high voter turnout, such as Dearborn, where voters turned out in higher droves than usual, according to News From the States.
“It was new voters coming out to punish,” Smidt said. “I think right now we’re dealing with a question of, ‘How much now does the disaffection matter?’ Or is Abdul El-Sayed too liberal for some of these people even though he sort of appeals on maybe ethnic grounds or just personal background?”
Stevens won Wayne and Oakland Counties, which have the highest populations of black residents in Michigan. Wayne County has a 53.7% white population and 36.8% black population, plus a $60,000 per year median household income, according to the county’s census. Wayne County includes Detroit, which has a majority black population. Oakland County has a 72% white population and 13% black population.
Stevens ran as the more moderate candidate, campaigning on reforming rather than abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), implementing a public option over Medicare for All and supporting Israel. She received endorsements from the Democratic establishment, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn and Delaware Sen. Chris Coons.
El-Sayed was endorsed by Sanders, Democratic Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib, Democratic Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Democratic New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Democratic Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey and Democratic Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer essentially endorsed Stevens in June, stating that she had the “best chance of winning,” Punchbowl News reported. He quietly supported Stevens behind the scenes and asked party donors to support her, according to The New York Times.
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