Final Polls: Late Deciders Break for Republicans, but One in 10 Trump Voters Plan to Back Democrats
Voters who made up their minds in the last month are breaking toward Republicans in seven key Senate races, according to the final New York Times/Siena poll before Tuesday’s midterms.
“There are still some undecided voters, and voters who decided only in the last month favored Republicans by a nine-point margin,” the Times reported, as quoted by the Washington Examiner.
Overall, though, the poll of 5,708 likely voters, taken Oct. 23 to Nov. 1, found Democrats ahead in six of the seven states, with Iowa effectively tied.
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed led Republican Mike Rogers by 11 points in Michigan. Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton by 7 in Texas, and Troy Jackson led Republican Sen. Susan Collins by 6 in Maine.
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown led Republican Sen. Jon Husted by 5 points in Ohio, and Adam Hamilton led Republican Sen. Roger Marshall by 5 in Kansas, the Daily Signal reported.
In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 2 points. The survey was mostly completed before the Times reported that Peltola operatives allegedly recruited a second “Dan Sullivan” to run. Peltola’s campaign denies that.
The poll also came before Rep. Haley Stevens, whom El-Sayed beat in the Democratic primary, endorsed Rogers on Sunday.
The margin of error ranged from 3.3 points in Texas to 4.8 in Alaska. The Times cautioned that “surveys are not predictions” and that blue-collar white workers have been hard to reach, with past polling error among the highest in that group.
“While a blue wave, and Democratic control of the Senate is, according to our polls, a distinct possibility, with so many races within the poll’s total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible,” Siena concluded, according to the Times’ published toplines.
Cracks in Trump’s Coalition
A separate survey points to trouble for the GOP. About 9.5% of people who said they voted for President Donald Trump in 2024 plan to vote for a Democrat this year, according to the POLITICO Poll, conducted by PF Global.
Just 2.4% of Kamala Harris voters said they plan to back Republicans. Among Trump voters, 78.6% said they would vote Republican, while 11.9% said they would vote third party, not vote or were unsure.
Politico said the shift reflects weaker enthusiasm among young voters and Latinos, two groups that helped Trump win in 2024, amid the Iran war and his lagging approval ratings.
That poll combined five weekly online surveys of 10,110 U.S. adults from Oct. 3 to Nov. 1. Respondents reported their own 2024 votes, and the sample was of adults, not likely voters.
Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats for control. In the House, Democrats need a net gain of three seats.
Polls are not results. The first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, and race calls will come from the Associated Press and network decision desks.
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