Republicans’ dismal showing in 2026 has made their 2028 presidential primary much more interesting.
It has long seemed likely the 2028 GOP presidential nomination would be decided by President Donald Trump. He has dominated Republican Party politics for a decade. The GOP base adores him for bucking the amnesty-pushing GOP establishment and numerous accomplishments.
This seemed to suggest that Trump would endorse a presidential candidate, putting him or her on a glide path to the nomination. The most likely candidate was Vice President JD Vance. His position made him the obvious successor. He’s extremely intelligent and well-spoken. Like Trump, he doesn’t strictly adhere to GOP orthodoxy.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also distinguished himself. He served as acting director of USAID and slashed its wasteful grants. He’s helped move key Western Hemisphere allies, like Panama and Mexico, away from China. In October, he stood in front of the Acropolis in Athens and delivered a stirring defense of Western civilization and its values.
But this November knockout could change the calculus. Although he wasn’t on the ballot, the results are a stunning rebuke of Trump himself. He spent weeks telling voters to “pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot.” Not a great pitch from someone whose approval rating is 20 points underwater.
GOP losses didn’t just come from fired-up Democrats. They came in states that Republicans have long taken for granted — Iowa, Ohio, Kansas, South Carolina and Texas.
The takeaway for 2028 should be obvious. Being Trump’s handpicked successor now looks less like a golden ticket than an anchor that will weigh someone down in a general election. Republican voters can see the obvious. And if they don’t realize the stakes now, they will soon.
Democrats haven’t been shy about their desire to reshape American institutions to cement their grip on power. If Democrats win the presidency in 2028 and retain their congressional majorities, they are likely to pack the Supreme Court and add two left-leaning states to cement their Senate majorities. Their idea of defending democracy is changing the rules to ensure they never lose power.
This has created an opening for other candidates. Outgoing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis tops that list. He’s been America’s best governor for the last eight years. He passed massive tax cuts and reduced state debt. He signed a ban on gender mutilation surgeries for minors and protected parental rights. Florida’s economy has boomed, along with its population.
DeSantis transformed Florida from the country’s most important swing state into a deep-red bastion. It showed Tuesday. Florida elected a new Republican governor, and Republican candidates did well in down-ballot races.
The good news for Republicans is that DeSantis sure sounds like someone weighing a presidential run. He recently called on Congress to ban congressional stock trading and apply it to the executive branch.
“I’ve never traded a stock since I’ve been in elected office,” DeSantis said after the election. He continued, “How do you have no investment acumen, and then all of a sudden get elected to Congress, and then you’re outperforming Warren Buffett?”
He also said Republicans need to create a “clear contrast between freedom and socialism” and blasted crony capitalism.
It’s not hard to see the outlines of a presidential campaign in his record and rhetoric. Now, DeSantis’ 2024 bid didn’t go well. Democrats’ efforts to imprison Trump led Republican voters to rally around him. But Republican primary voters have a record of nominating those who’ve run well previously.
It’s a long way to the Iowa caucuses, and Trump will remain a key figure in GOP politics. But DeSantis has a more plausible path to the presidency than he did just a few days ago.
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