Who Really Won The Midterms’ Gerrymandering War? The Answer May Come Down To A Few Races

With the dust all but settling from the hard-fought redistricting war between Republicans and Democrats, one party is emerging as a clear winner — but it still might not be enough to secure majorities in Congress after the 2026 midterm elections.

Ten states redrew their congressional district maps during the 2026 election cycle, the most to redistrict in the middle of a decade since the 1800s, according to National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL). Republicans clearly came out on top in the clash, as eight states drew maps favorable for securing GOP wins, while only two — California and Utah — drew maps likely to flip seats to Democratic control.

In July 2025, Texas became the first state to begin the process of redrawing its map ahead of the midterms. After a failed attempt by Democratic lawmakers to flee the Lone Star State to prevent a vote on the subject, the new GOP-friendly map passed both chambers of the state legislature and was signed into law by Gov. Greg Abbott just under a month after it was unveiled. The map will likely flip anywhere from three to five Democratic-held seats from blue to red. After a lower court ruling blocked the new lines, the U.S. Supreme Court gave Texas the green light to use the map in December 2025.

Other Republican-led states followed Texas in redistricting to create or win more red seats. Missouri’s new map changed one seat from being safely Democratic to safely Republican, while North Carolina’s map changed a Democratic-held seat President Donald Trump won by three percentage points in 2024 to one he won by 12. Redistricting in Ohio, meanwhile, changed the seat won by longtime incumbent Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur from one Trump carried by under seven points to one he won by nearly 11.

Likewise, Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed into law May 4 a map which seeks to flip four Democratic House seats into Republican control. The aggressive map, however, still might backfire, as none of the redrawn seats are rated “Solid R” by the nonpartisan Cook Political report, despite all, as drawn for 2024, having voted for Trump by at least nine points. Conversely, one of the new seats is rated “Toss Up,” two are “Lean R,” and one is “Likely R.”

Just days after Florida rolled out its new map, Republicans’ electoral odds received a boost in other southern states after the Supreme Court dealt a blow to a portion of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 (VRA) mandating race-based gerrymandering in much of the region. The decision in Louisiana v. Callais prompted Alabama, Louisiana, and Tennessee to redraw their respective maps, creating a new Republican-favoring seat in each state.

Democrats, on the other hand, celebrated in November 2025 when California voters overwhelmingly passed Proposition 50. The measure approved a lopsided gerrymander backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom which sought to neutralize the redrawn Texas map and flip up to five Republican-held seats. Like the Lone Star State map it seeks to counteract, however, the Democratic-heavy map leaves two of its new seats competitive despite shifting it to their advantage.

Surprisingly, the other state which redrew its map midcycle to create more Democratic seats was deep-red Utah. Following a ruling by a Republican-appointed judge, Utah was mandated to use a map which created a safely blue seat based in Salt Lake City, effectively replacing the deep-red seat held by retiring Republican Rep. Burgess Owens.

In Virginia, Democrats prematurely celebrated after voters narrowly voted to pass a heavily-scrutinized Virginia gerrymander which could have given their party up to four additional House seats. The state’s supreme court struck it down, however, just 17 days later.

GOP efforts to gain more seats in the red states of Indiana and South Carolina also fell flat due to some Republican legislators voting with Democrats to block the proposed maps.

Are Republicans Really The Winners?

Republican consultant Jim Ellis said at a Thursday discussion titled “How Will Redistricting Shape the 2026 Elections?” that, with everything taken into consideration, Republicans stand to gain between five and 12 seats from the redrawn maps across the ten states.

This projected net gain looks good for the GOP on paper, especially considering that the party was projected to suffer a net loss of seats from redistricting in late April. In the less-than-one-week period between the now-invalidated Virginia map passing and the release of the new Florida map, it seemed that Democrats were in a strong position to come out ahead in the gerrymandering battle. The DeSantis-backed effort, plus the Callais ruling, has returned momentum squarely into the hands of Republicans.

Ellis, however, agreed that, despite redistricting, Republicans’ performance during the midterms will still hinge on the Trump administration’s Iran war, as well as the resulting skyrocketing of gas and grocery prices. Polling has showed the war to be among the least-popular conflicts in American history.

The Real Clear Politics polling average between May 7 and June 2 shows Democrats ahead by six points in the 2026 House generic ballot. Additionally, recent Democratic upset victories in special elections for state legislative districts suggest the midterms might result in a blue wave similar to the 2018 cycle during Trump’s first term.

Thus, even with the GOP gaining a dozen seats due to redistricting, the party can still lose control of the House.

Ellis discussed that, in Texas and California, multiple seats drawn to be flips during redistricting may end up remaining with their respective current parties. In Texas, he specifically referenced the two seats the GOP is targeting in the heavily-Hispanic Rio Grande Valley: the 28th and the 34th Districts. In California, he named the 22nd District, held by moderate Republican Rep. David Valadao, and the open 48th District, for which he expressed confidence in the GOP candidate, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond.

Ellis, however, is confident the DeSantis-signed Florida map will hold for Republicans despite concerns it was drawn too aggressively and could backfire during a Democratic wave year. He also noted that, despite multiple of the seats drawn as GOP pickups having recently voted Democratic, the Sunshine State has since experienced a massive shift of increased Republican Party registration.

“In 2018 there were 257,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans” in Florida, he said in response to a question asked by the Daily Caller News Foundation (DCNF). “Today, there’s 1.5 million more Republicans than Democrats. That’s the difference. And that’s what the pollsters miss. And that’s why the polling has been wrong in Florida in almost every election since 2018.”

How It All (Really) Began

How redistricting all started is “way different than what the media likes to portray,” Ellis said.

He explained that, contrary to Democratic talking points that the Texas state GOP started the redistricting battle in July 2025 as a “Republican power grab” to “arbitrarily” change the map, the efforts actually trace their roots to a federal court case a year earlier.

The Biden-era Department of Justice brought the case Petteway v. Galveston County after a heavily Republican Texas county redrew its county commission map to eliminate a seat long racially gerrymandered to be majority minority and consistently elected the commission’s sole Democrat. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit ruled in 2024 that the majority minority district was not protected under the VRA, contrary to Democrats’ arguments.

Months after the Fifth Circuit’s ruling, the county successfully nixed its racially gerrymandered district, causing the Democrat who hitherto represented it to overwhelmingly lose reelection to a Republican,

“At that point, the Justice Department informed the state of Texas that their congressional map, based upon that ruling, was illegal and had to be redrawn,” Ellis added. “That’s why redistricting started.”

He pointed out that, while Abbott points out this fact “in every presentation or interview that he gives,” the media “of course” does not cover this part.

“Then Trump steps in and says, ‘Well, we’re going to get five seats. We’re entitled to five seats. We’re just going to get it by doing redistricting,’” Ellis continued. “At the same time, Ohio was also, by state law, forced to redraw their map.”

He noted that the Buckeye State has a “unique procedure” for redistricting which involves both the state legislature and a bipartisan commission comprised of elected officials. Since the legislature failed to pass Ohio’s post-2020 Census map by a three-fifths vote in 2021, the map, under state law, was only allowed to stand for two election cycles, which Ellis noted “of course was 2022 and 2024.”

“So, Gov. Newsom in California then sees, ‘Well, if Texas and Ohio are redrawing and getting all these new Republican seats, we’re going to redraw California, and we’ll get five seats to negate that,” he added. “Then it started off a chain reaction.”

Is Redistricting The New Reality?

Ellis suggested the surge of states that redrew their maps mid-decade prior to the 2026 cycle may be not an anomaly but a trend of things to come. He cited the Callais case, as well as possible retaliation from blue states, in his prediction there will be another redistricting wave prior to the 2028 House elections.

“In coming elections now we can anticipate another round of redistricting based on the Louisiana case in 2028. So, we’re going to see other states that didn’t redistrict this time that came close, Indiana, South Carolina,” he said. “Some of the Democratic states that do the same — New York — I guarantee you they’ll redistrict.”

Looking past 2028 and into the 2030s, Ellis said that overwhelming population gains projected for red states such as Florida and Texas compared to population losses in blue states such as California and New York are poised to cause the GOP to gain more seats when all states redistrict prior to the 2032 elections.

“This is a major problem for Democrats,” he said, pointing out that it also affects the Electoral College, which assigns electoral votes to states based on the combined counts of their members in the House of Representatives and senators.

If apportionment after the 2030 census is carried out using 2025 population estimates, California would lose four congressional seats while Texas would gain four and Florida would gain two, according to the American Redistricting Project. Other red states, such as Idaho and Utah, would gain one each, while heavily Democratic states, such as New York, Rhode Island, Oregon, Illinois, and Minnesota, would each lose one under the same conditions.

The event in which Ellis spoke marked the launch of the America’s Economy First speaker series at Navigators Global’s Washington, D.C. office.

“Why ‘America’s Economy First?’ Because prosperity is central to the American dream,” Navigators Global principal and policy director Jim Carter told the DCNF in a statement.