U.S. Oil Slips Below $100 a Barrel as Iran Talks in Qatar Raise Hopes of a Deal
U.S. crude oil slid below $100 a barrel Monday as talks between Iranian officials and Qatari mediators raised hopes of a deal to end the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
West Texas Intermediate traded at $99.71 a barrel by mid-morning in London, down $4.41, or 4.2%, while Brent crude fell $4.79 to $108.64, Reuters reported.
Brent finished October at its highest level in six months amid fears the conflict could flare again after Tuesday’s midterm elections.
Iranian negotiators have since left the talks, but a draft proposal is circulating and a follow-up meeting is possible, an official briefed on the discussions said.
“The new month brought with it renewed hopes of a breakthrough in the Iranian stalemate,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.
“Lingering hopes of some form of diplomatic progress, combined with the absence of any meaningful military escalation over the weekend, have taken some of the immediate heat out of prices for now,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Sunday the “ongoing and progressing” talks were meant to continue consultations with the Qatari mediators, adding that Tehran was prepared for “both defence and diplomacy.”
Washington Keeps Its Options Open
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Donald Trump would like to resolve the war “diplomatically,” CNBC reported.
Rubio told reporters over the weekend that Trump “hasn’t made a decision” and that the U.S. has “everything we need to be successful” militarily. “But we would prefer to do it peacefully,” he said.
His comments came amid reports that Washington is preparing for possible renewed strikes after the Nov. 3 vote. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Saturday ordered an “immediate, impactful, and geographically unrestricted response” to any threat.
Not everyone expects relief to last. Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $105 a barrel from $90 and its WTI forecast to $94 from $81, ETMarkets reported.
In an upside scenario, the bank said Brent could reach $140 a barrel and average around $130 in 2027 if Gulf oil output stays 3.5 million barrels per day below its 2025 average.
“Intensified shipping attacks, damage to oil infrastructure, and a more persistent risk premium remain the key triggers of potential upside,” the bank said in its report, according to Reuters.
The war has drained nearly 1 billion barrels from global inventories since it disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February, the chief executive of Abu Dhabi’s state oil company, ADNOC, said.
Major OPEC+ producers also reaffirmed over the weekend that December production quotas will stay unchanged, Newsquawk reported, noting that lasting price declines have historically required concrete deliverables such as a signed framework rather than draft proposals.
At the pump, AAA put the national average for regular gasoline at $4.17 a gallon Monday, down from $4.40 a month ago but still about $1.13 above the $3.04 drivers paid a year ago.
Diesel averaged $6.29 a gallon, just shy of the record $6.53 set on Sept. 22 and up from $3.68 a year earlier.
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