Mortgage Rates Jump Back to 7.30% After a Hot Inflation Report, Ending a Four-Week Slide
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 7.30% on Tuesday after a hotter-than-expected inflation report, ending four straight weeks of easing that had finally drawn buyers back.
The rate rose 12 basis points from Monday, the largest one-day jump in more than a month, according to Mortgage News Daily. It now sits nearly a full percentage point above where it stood a year ago.
Surveys vary by method. Mortgage Research Center data put the 30-year average at 7.107%, a rate that means roughly $426,306 in interest over the life of a $300,000 loan, Fortune calculated.
The trigger was the Labor Department’s October consumer price index, which rose 0.4% against the 0.3% economists expected. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3% versus forecasts of 0.2%, CNBC reported.
The 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark for mortgages, car loans and credit cards, traded above 5% before settling at 4.992%, up 13 basis points. The two-year yield surged more than 18 basis points.
“We were expecting today’s data to carry far more weight than last week’s jobs report,” Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily, wrote in remarks reported by CNBC.
Buyers Had Just Returned
The jump came just as demand recovered. Mortgage applications rose 6.2% last week as the Mortgage Bankers Association’s average 30-year rate fell to 7.21% from 7.30%, its lowest since mid-September.
Purchase applications climbed 8% for the week but were still 18% below a year ago. Refinance applications rose 5% yet remained 57% lower than the same week in 2025.
“The declining trend in rates helped to spur stronger application activity, although the pace of purchase and refinance applications remain considerably lower than a year ago,” said Joel Kan, the MBA’s deputy chief economist.
Kan added that the FHA rate had dipped back below 7% and sat more than 20 basis points under the conforming rate, which “helped first-time home buyers currently in the market.”
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in London, hours before the report, that he would support a half-point rate increase if inflation kept accelerating, Bloomberg reported. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the Fed may need to move faster.
The Fed has raised its benchmark rate once under Chairman Kevin Warsh, a quarter point in September, and held at 3.75% to 4.00% at its October meeting. Its next meeting is Dec. 8-9.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the report “borderline disturbing” because services inflation is not coming down, FXStreet reported. Markets now price a December hike as likely.
“Inflation isn’t moving closer to the Fed’s target,” said George Catrambone, head of fixed income at DWS Americas.
Rate-watchers polled by Bankrate are split on the week ahead: 50% expect rates to rise, 38% see them holding flat and 13% expect a decline. Bankrate’s own survey put the 30-year average at 7.24% as of Nov. 11.
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